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Dec 2025

1) RTM overtakes DAM on sunday; spread at Rs 0.15/kWh
8RTM’s average MCP on 2025-11-30 printed at Rs 2.82/kWh versus DAM’s Rs 2.67/kWh.
Inference: Weekend sell stacks were deep in DAM while RTM demand concentrated in fewer blocks, nudging RTM over DAM.
Why it matters: A positive RTM–DAM basis changes hedge economics for DISCOMs and generators trading weekends.

2) ER→NR ATC binds lasted 13 hours on 2025-11-30
8ATC violations were recorded for 13 hours (13.54% of blocks) on the ER–NR corridor.
Inference: Tight east-to-north transfer likely constrained price convergence during the day’s shoulder periods.
Why it matters: Persistent ER→NR congestion raises delivered power costs for northern buyers and limits portfolio rebalancing.

3) Ancillary stack skewed to down-regulation; net −9.73 GWh on 2025-11-27
8SRAS+TRAS awards totaled +21,611 MWh (up) and −31,344 MWh (down), net −9,733 MWh.
Inference: Over-commitment or higher must-run scheduling likely drove sustained down-regulation calls through multiple blocks.
Why it matters: Net down-regulation imposes balancing costs and can depress peak-hour flexibility premiums.

4) Hapur logged 1.11% time outside 765 kV band; most nodes stayed within
8Voltage at Hapur was outside the 765 kV IEGC band for 1.11% of the day; many 765 kV nodes showed 0.00%.
Inference: Localized reactive management or loading conditions created a narrow voltage tail despite broadly stable grid voltage.
Why it matters: Even small tails can force VAR support and tap-changer actions that add system costs.

5) Sunday DAM cleared only ~30% of sell offers
8On 2025-11-30, DAM sell bids were 676,565 MWh against final scheduled 203,073.97 MWh (≈30.02% clearance).
Inference: Excess weekend offers and softer demand compressed clears despite adequate inter-regional transfer windows.
Why it matters: Low clearance ratios raise non-clear risk for generators and shift volume into RTM at potentially higher MCPs.

6) Coal stocks: Haryana fleet heavily over-normative; Punjab mixed
8HPGCL’s aggregate coal stock stood at 178% of normative; PSPCL’s Ropar was at 85% while GHTP was at 113%.
Inference: The dispersion signals uneven replenishment and could influence unit commitment choices across neighboring states.
Why it matters: Carrying excess coal ties up working capital; sub-normative sites face higher spot-purchase risk if rail logistics tighten.

7) VRE penetration hit 24.28% in solar hours on 2025-11-29
8During 07:00–17:00, all-India VRE (wind+solar) penetration reached 24.28% of demand met.
Inference: High daytime VRE share paired with later down-reg ancillary (see 2025-11-27) suggests operators actively trimmed thermal schedules around solar ramps.
Why it matters: Rising mid-day VRE dominance increases the premium on fast-ramp capacity and storage bidding strategies.

8) Karnataka ended with +0.85 MU UI despite no regional shortage (SR, 2025-11-30)
8Southern Region reported zero shortage at 19:00 and 03:00 peaks, but Karnataka posted +0.85 MU UI by day-end.
Inference: Mild positive UI points to intraday schedule–drawal mismatch even when the region met demand comfortably.
Why it matters: Small UI imbalances accumulate into real costs; tighter forecast-to-schedule alignment can shave Rs-denominated penalties.
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